The Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans Pritchard reports that âthe risk of a US recession next year is rising fastâ and that âthe Federal Reserve has no margin for errorâ.
AEP is quite well connected and very well informed on such matters and hence the need to consider what he is saying and more importantly prepare:
âLiquidity is suddenly drying up. Early warning indicators from US ‘flow of funds’ data point to an incipent squeeze, the long-feared capitulation after five successive quarters of declining corporate profits.
Yet the Fed is methodically draining money through ‘reverse repos’ regardless. It has set the course for a rise in interest rates in December and seems to be on automatic pilot.â
âWe are seeing a serious deterioration on a monthly basis,â said Michael Howell from CrossBorder Capital, specialists in global liquidity. The signals lead the economic cycle by six to nine months.
âWe think the US is heading for recession by the Spring of 2017. It is absolutely bonkers for the Fed to even think about raising rates right now,â he said.
The article can be read in the Telegraph here
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