Silver’s cheerleaders are trying to keep their flocks happy by talking it up as usual, but the hard reality is that silver’s charts continue to look awful, and like it is readying for another sharp drop, which fits with our view that the dollar is getting ready for another big upleg.
There is nothing bullish about silver’s long-term chart. It reveals an ongoing “staircase” decline in force for years now from its 2011 highs. In recent months silver has been marking out another horizontal consolidation pattern which is viewed as another “step” on the path to the next sharp drop, which may be imminent with the dollar looking ready to break out upside. If it does break down soon as expected it should drop swiftly to the lower boundary of the downtrend channel, which means that it would drop to the $11 area, as shown on the chart by the red arrow. What would it take to turn this chart bullish? – that’s very simple to say – a high volume upside breakout from the major downtrend channel, but at this point such a turn for the better looks unlikely.